I still remember sitting in my living room during the 2016 NBA Draft, watching as Ben Simmons became the obvious first pick. At that time, we all expected greatness from him - the next LeBron, they said. But what fascinates me about draft classes isn't the predictable picks; it's the unexpected gems that emerge years later. The 2016 class has proven particularly surprising, with several players developing in ways nobody anticipated.
Looking back, the biggest shock for me has been watching Malcolm Brogdon's journey. Selected 36th overall by Milwaukee, he wasn't even supposed to be a star. I recall thinking he might become a decent role player at best. Yet here we are, with Brogdon not only winning Rookie of the Year but evolving into an All-Star caliber player. His recent seasons with Indiana and Boston have shown a level of offensive sophistication that few second-round picks ever achieve. The numbers speak for themselves - he's consistently averaged around 20 points and 6 assists while maintaining that incredible 50-40-90 shooting efficiency that makes coaches drool.
What's equally surprising is how many teams passed on Pascal Siakam. I'll admit I didn't see his potential either when he went 27th to Toronto. The raw athleticism was there, but the skill development? That came out of nowhere. From averaging just 4 points as a rookie to becoming an All-NBA player and championship cornerstone - that trajectory still blows my mind. I've followed hundreds of prospects over my fifteen years covering basketball, and Siakam's development curve remains one of the most remarkable I've witnessed.
The draft's unpredictability reminds me of what we're seeing in other leagues too. Just look at Calvin Oftana's recent emergence in the Philippine Basketball Association. His upcoming Gilas stint comes on the heels of a remarkable performance in the Commissioner's Cup where he's one of the statistical leaders in the Best Player of the Conference race. Watching players like Oftana develop reminds me that talent reveals itself in different timelines. Some guys are immediate contributors, while others need that crucial development period to unlock their potential.
Domantas Sabonis represents another fascinating case from that 2016 class. Traded on draft night from Orlando to Oklahoma City, he's completely transformed his game multiple times. From a stretch four to a playmaking center - who saw that coming? His recent All-Star seasons in Indiana and Sacramento showcase a versatility that makes me wonder how he lasted until pick 11. The traditional big man was supposed to be dying, yet Sabonis has reinvented what a center can be in today's game.
Then there are the disappointments that surprised us in the opposite direction. Remember Dragan Bender at number four? I thought he'd be the next European superstar. Instead, he's become a cautionary tale about projecting international talent. And Kris Dunn at five - the defensive potential seemed limitless, yet he never developed the offensive consistency needed from a top-five pick. These misses hurt because as analysts, we invest so much in evaluating these players, yet the draft remains beautifully unpredictable.
What strikes me about the 2016 class seven years later is how it defied conventional wisdom. The players taken outside the lottery have arguably outperformed many top picks. Fred VanVleet going undrafted entirely? That still gives me chills when I think about it. From undrafted to championship starter and max contract player - that's the stuff of basketball dreams.
The lesson I've taken from studying this draft class is that development systems and opportunity matter as much as raw talent. Players like Siakam benefited tremendously from Toronto's development program, while others selected higher floundered in less structured environments. This has changed how I evaluate draft prospects now - I pay more attention to organizational fit than I used to.
As we continue to watch the careers of these 2016 draftees unfold, I'm reminded that the draft is just the beginning of the story. The real surprises emerge over years of development, opportunity, and sometimes pure luck. The journey matters more than the destination, and in the case of the 2016 class, what a fascinating journey it's been. These players have reshaped franchises, won championships, and proven that where you're drafted matters less than what you do after the draft.